Guidance report card
Every producer here is graded against the production guidance it issued itself — upgrades and downgrades as they happened, then the finished year reconciled against the company's own filed numbers. Measured from filings, never editorial.
The card
Producers graded
9 with a closed FY
Closed-FY verdicts
own band, own filings
Beat / in line / miss
vs own guidance band
Revisions tracked
upgrades, cuts, reaffirms
| Company | Revision behaviour | Closed-FY delivery | Long-run verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| GMD GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED | 10 FYs guided · ↑1 | FY2026+3.8%in line | Insufficient data |
| BHP BHP GROUP LIMITED | 6 FYs guided · ↑3 | FY2026+0.1%in line | Insufficient data |
| CMM CAPRICORN METALS LTD | 9 FYs guided | FY2026+3.0%in line | Insufficient data |
| PDN PALADIN ENERGY LTD | 5 FYs guided · ↑1 · ↓1 | FY2026+3.7%beat | Insufficient data |
| FMG FORTESCUE LTD | 6 FYs guided | FY2026+0.7%in line | Insufficient data |
| IGO IGO LIMITED | 4 FYs guided · ↑2 | FY2026+0.7%in line | Insufficient data |
| NST NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD | 6 FYs guided | FY2026+2.9%in line | Insufficient data |
| PLS PLS GROUP LIMITED | 4 FYs guided | FY2026+4.1%beat | Insufficient data |
| LTR LIONTOWN LIMITED | 3 FYs guided | FY2026-3.8%in line | Insufficient data |
| RIO RIO TINTO LIMITED | 11 FYs guided · ↑1 · ↓1 | no closed FY reconciled yet | Insufficient data |
| EVN EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED | 9 FYs guided · ↓1 | no closed FY reconciled yet | Insufficient data |
| MIN MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED | 5 FYs guided · ↑2 · ↓1 | no closed FY reconciled yet | Insufficient data |
| BOE BOSS ENERGY LTD | 3 FYs guided | no closed FY reconciled yet | Insufficient data |
| SFR SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED | 2 FYs guided | no closed FY reconciled yet | Insufficient data |
Measured from company filings · verdicts are against each company's own guidance band · data journalism, not advice
Method notes
Revision behaviour — every production-guidance range we've extracted is lined up chronologically per fiscal year. A midpoint move of more than 2% counts as an upgrade or a downgrade; anything inside that is a reaffirmation.
Closed-FY delivery — once a fiscal year ends, the company's final pre-year-end guidance band is compared with the full-year production its own later filings state. Above its own high is a beat, below its own low is a miss, inside the band is in line — the % shown is the distance from the guided midpoint.
Long-run verdict — with three or more reconciled years, a company is classified by how it habitually guides: conservative (beats), accurate, optimistic (misses), or inconsistent when results swing too widely to trust either way.
When figures conflict across filings — restatements, part-year scopes, different reporting bases — the year is left unreconciled rather than guessed. Gaps here are deliberate.
This report card measures forecasting behaviour, not investment merit. Catalyst Ahead doesn't predict share-price direction. See .
Not financial advice. Catalyst Ahead is an AI-driven research tool. All projections are inferences from public company announcements. AI-derived inferences from company announcements. Always do your own research and consult a licensed adviser before trading.