Accuracy scoreboard
Every past catalyst is graded after the fact against the announcements that actually followed. Nothing airbrushed — and when we can't yet confirm an outcome, it stays "pending" rather than being guessed.
Outcomes graded
2,140 decided · 2,097 pending
Hit-rate
landed ÷ decided
High-confidence hit-rate
1,448 decided
Avg timing error
landed events · |predicted − actual|
By catalyst category
| Category | Decided | Hit-rate | Avg error | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drilling Results | 449 | 23% | 20.1d | |
| Other | 378 | 0% | — | |
| Regulatory Filing | 343 | 2% | 19.1d | |
| Capital Raise | 197 | 5% | 13.7d | |
| Exploration Update | 121 | 88% | 17.7d | |
| Production Update | 117 | 9% | 15.5d | |
| Resource Estimate | 83 | 6% | 22.8d | |
| Clinical Trial | 79 | 23% | 31.8d | |
| Earnings | 75 | 0% | — | |
| Contract Award | 44 | 2% | 30.0d | |
| Guidance | 33 | 3% | 30.0d | |
| Acquisition | 29 | 14% | 12.3d | |
| Financial / Cashflow | 27 | 11% | 4.7d | |
| Exploration | 25 | 0% | — | |
| Project Development | 22 | 91% | 17.6d | |
| Corporate Action | 16 | 44% | 15.1d | |
| Feasibility Study | 15 | 73% | 23.1d | |
| Permitting | 13 | 100% | 18.7d | |
| Management Change | 11 | 45% | 17.8d | |
| Metallurgical Results | 11 | 100% | 13.7d | |
| Annual General Meeting | 10 | 40% | 14.3d | |
| Investor Presentation | 8 | 13% | 2.0d | |
| Trading Halt | 5 | 0% | — | |
| Commercialisation | 4 | 100% | 20.8d | |
| Corporate | 4 | 0% | — | |
| Debt Financing | 4 | 50% | 24.5d | |
| Product Update | 4 | 0% | — | |
| Partnership / JV | 3 | 33% | 10.0d | |
| Board Change | 2 | 0% | — | |
| Investment | 2 | 50% | 27.0d | |
| Dividend | 1 | 0% | — | |
| Drilling | 1 | 0% | — | |
| Exploration Results | 1 | 0% | — | |
| Grant / Non-dilutive | 1 | 100% | 9.0d | |
| Legal / Litigation | 1 | 0% | — | |
| Shareholder Meeting | 1 | 0% | — |
"Decided" = landed + missed · withdrawn & pending excluded · Regraded twice daily · Last graded 10 Sept 2026
Method notes
Every catalyst we publish is stamped with its predicted date and confidence grade. After the window passes, we look for a later announcement of the same category from the same company near the predicted date.
Landed = a corroborating announcement appeared within ±60 days of our predicted date. The signed gap between the two is the timing error we report.
Missed = no corroboration appeared long after the window closed. Pending = still too early to call — we never guess a landing.
High-confidence = the subset of catalysts our extraction graded "High" at publish time, scored the same way.
Events flagged cancelled or withdrawn by the issuer are excluded from the hit-rate.
This scoreboard tracks timing accuracy, not outcome prediction. Catalyst Ahead doesn't predict share-price direction. See .
Not financial advice. Catalyst Ahead is an AI-driven research tool. All projections are inferences from public company announcements. AI-derived inferences from company announcements. Always do your own research and consult a licensed adviser before trading.