Accuracy scoreboard
Every past catalyst is graded after the fact against the announcements that actually followed. Nothing airbrushed — and when we can't yet confirm an outcome, it stays "pending" rather than being guessed.
Outcomes graded
424 decided · 3,181 pending
Hit-rate
landed ÷ decided
High-confidence hit-rate
370 decided
Avg timing error
landed events · |predicted − actual|
By catalyst category
| Category | Decided | Hit-rate | Avg error | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Filing | 75 | 9% | 13.6d | |
| Other | 65 | 0% | — | |
| Earnings | 63 | 0% | — | |
| Capital Raise | 56 | 4% | 7.5d | |
| Drilling Results | 42 | 57% | 21.3d | |
| Exploration Update | 29 | 100% | 13.4d | |
| Clinical Trial | 22 | 32% | 18.7d | |
| Production Update | 15 | 20% | 5.3d | |
| Project Development | 14 | 100% | 16.5d | |
| Acquisition | 9 | 11% | 0.0d | |
| Contract Award | 6 | 17% | 30.0d | |
| Resource Estimate | 6 | 33% | 14.0d | |
| Feasibility Study | 3 | 100% | 11.7d | |
| Guidance | 3 | 0% | — | |
| Corporate Action | 2 | 100% | 15.5d | |
| Debt Financing | 2 | 100% | 24.5d | |
| Exploration | 2 | 0% | — | |
| Financial / Cashflow | 2 | 0% | — | |
| Metallurgical Results | 2 | 100% | 20.0d | |
| Permitting | 2 | 100% | 1.0d | |
| Annual General Meeting | 1 | 100% | 1.0d | |
| Dividend | 1 | 0% | — | |
| Management Change | 1 | 100% | 36.0d | |
| Partnership / JV | 1 | 100% | 10.0d |
"Decided" = landed + missed · withdrawn & pending excluded · Regraded twice daily · Last graded 26 July 2026
Method notes
Every catalyst we publish is stamped with its predicted date and confidence grade. After the window passes, we look for a later announcement of the same category from the same company near the predicted date.
Landed = a corroborating announcement appeared within ±60 days of our predicted date. The signed gap between the two is the timing error we report.
Missed = no corroboration appeared long after the window closed. Pending = still too early to call — we never guess a landing.
High-confidence = the subset of catalysts our extraction graded "High" at publish time, scored the same way.
Events flagged cancelled or withdrawn by the issuer are excluded from the hit-rate.
This scoreboard tracks timing accuracy, not outcome prediction. Catalyst Ahead doesn't predict share-price direction. See .
Not financial advice.Catalyst Ahead is an AI-driven research tool. All projections are inferences from public company announcements. Always do your own research and consult a licensed adviser before trading.